Liberty still favored to win WNBA title despite roster changes during free agency

The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx are two of the top four favorites to win the 2025 WNBA title. PHOTO: Brandon Todd/New York Liberty

By W.G. RAMIREZ

LAS VEGAS — The WNBA’s exponential growth in popularity last season was unmatched.

From the Las Vegas Aces' chase for a three-peat, to the New York Liberty winning their first-ever title, to the arrival of one of the best rookie classes ever - led by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese - the growth in coverage saw the league surge.

Three months before the 2025 campaign, the hype train is barreling down the tracks thanks to a wave of movement in the most volatile offseason in WNBA history.

From surprising trades to free-agent signings, the faces in new places have odds on who will win the championship all over the place.

"It's been a matter of reacting to the player movement and trying to, just like the NBA, just trying to get ahead and find the corrected price based on the player movement," said Jeff Sherman, VP of risk management at the Westgate. "So I'm just trying to do that, whether it's raising or lowering teams. The future, though, is all just perception."

As of Friday morning, the defending champion Liberty were the favorites at 11-to-5 odds, just in front of the Aces (11-4).

The Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever are right behind, both listed at 4-1 odds.

Sherman said the biggest jump of the 13-team league has been the Phoenix Mercury, who fluctuated between 50- to 60-1 after last season, but when Alyssa Thomas was acquired in a trade, the odds dropped to 25-1. When Satou Sabally arrived, their odds dropped even further, ranging from 16- to 18-1.

Friday the Mercury were 14-1 to win the WNBA title.

"Now, Phoenix is basically the fifth power-rated team," Sherman said. "They took a major upgrade to their team from what they had last year. Griner out the door, Taurasi out the door, then you get in Alyssa Thomas and Sabally to go along with Kahleah Copper.

"So, for them to assemble that team, that surprised me a bit. You can see it in the odds. Proportionately, they've been one of the larger movements."

One of the biggest drops was Connecticut, which has been an Eastern Conference powerhouse the last several years, but lost Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.

"When the market had 6- and 8-1 on Connecticut, I was at 12," Sherman said. "I was trying to attract money on them because just their entire team being free agents. All it took, you figured, was one of them to leave and it would kind of be a domino effect. It played out just like that.

"They're going to be one of the lower power-rated teams this year now."

With most of the bigger-name free agents in place, and only a few others asking for trades, the next key date will be April 14, when the WNBA Draft takes place.

Training camp is set to open April 27, while the season opens on May 16.