NFL: Week 1 Best Bets
Pat Mahomes and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs open their season as 4 1/2-point favorites against the Detroit Lions, with a total of 53 points. (PHOTO: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)
By W.G. Ramirez
LAS VEGAS — With the NFL season kicking off Thursday night in Kansas City, sports bettors have to be salivating.
And I've decided to bring back a column I once wrote for Gaming Today when my good friend Steve Carp was editor-in-chief. As the NFL columnist, I would write a weekly piece that would lead into what every NFL sports-betting fan anticipated: five free winners against the spread.
Did I win anyone any money?
During the 2020-21 season, I finished 56-54-1, including a play on the Buccaneers over Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
For the 2019-20 season, I was 56-50-3, with a winner on the Chiefs over San Francisco in the Super Bowl.
Hit or miss, what I may or may not do is provide you with added information about plays you may be looking at, or fading. Either way, let's have some fun in the NFL this season.
First of all, before I get to this week's five picks, let's look at the five most and least profitable teams over the past five seasons.
Using Pro Football Reference's database via Stathead, the team that has provided the most profits is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Coming into its season-opener against AFC North-rival Cleveland, the Bengals are 47-33-1 since the 2018 season, which is a telling record when you consider Joe Burrow entered the league in 2020. Looking to return to the Super Bowl after losing to the Rams in the championship game in 2022, the Bengals are once again one of the AFC favorites.
The second- and third-most profitable teams since 2018 are the New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys, both coming in at 46-36-0.
The Saints have playoffs aspirations with Derek Carr coming over from the Raiders, where he captained the ship for nine seasons. Reports from the Big Easy reveal a positive culture change as the Saints' season gets underway at home against Tennessee.
The Cowboys might be in a do-or-die season when it comes to quarterback Dak Prescott and coach Mike McCarthy. They've already moved on from Ezekiel Elliott, and if this team doesn't make a run to at NFC Championship, at the very least, it wouldn't surprise me to see owner Jerry Joney do some wheeling and dealing next April and get into the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.
Next on the money list is the Miami Dolphins, who are 46-35-1 ATS since 2018, followed closely by the Detroit Lions, who are 45-37-0 in the same span.
Not a bad duo to round out the top five ATS of the past five seasons, when you consider both are expected to make some noise in their respective divisions. Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in completed air yards per completion at 8.8, and a full, healthy season could lead to wins, and covers.
As for the Lions, they've become media darlings while recapturing the hearts of Motown's faithful. Energetic coach Dan Campbell has Motor City buzzing with excitement, especially for opening night in Kansas City. This will be an exciting offense to watch all season.
As for the five worst ATS teams since 2018...
N.Y. Jets (32-49-1) - The much-improved Jets will not only have a better than .500 record in the regular NFL standings, but should also find themselves with a favorable ATS mark while challenging for the AFC East title.
Houston (35-43-4) - I don't know how this team will fare in the AFC South, but the Texans surely may find themselves with value prices as we're talking about a roster that will no longer be counted on to produce the league's worst numbers.
Tampa Bay (35-43-4) - It'll be interesting to see if Baker Mayfield can not only resurrect his career in Tampa, but revive the Buccaneers now that Tom Brady has stepped away. With plenty of talent remaining on both sides of the ball and the foundational changes still in place, the Bucs might be a live dog more times than not.
Atlanta (35-45-2) - The Falcons are pinning their hopes on quarterback Desmond Ridder. And while they may not have spectacular ATS numbers the last five seasons, it may be of interest to learn they ranked 10th with offensive drives ending in a score 39.5% of their possessions last season.
Carolina (35-45-2) - Wait, am I seeing a pattern here? The worst three teams at the betting window over the last five seasons come from the NFC South. Ouch. And with rookie Bryce Young taking the reins for the Panthers, I'm not ready to concede they're set to turn the corner, neither SU nor ATS.
Now, let's get to this week's five best bets in the NFL (all numbers will be graded by Thursday's line at the Westgate):
Lions at Chiefs Over 53
The Lions have gone over in Week 1 over the past 12 seasons, and let's be real, this is the most promising and highly anticipated this franchise has seen in quite some time. A shootout with the defending Super Bowl champs - with or without Travis Kelce seems inevitable.
Falcons (-3 1/2) vs. Panthers
As I mentioned in my column, I'm not a believer in Young, yet. I mean, the last time we saw a No. 1 overall pick start at quarterback in Week 1, and won, was 2002, when David Carr led the Texans to a victory. I'm much more intrigued by Ridder and the complexion of a Falcons team that capped 2022 with back-to-back wins.
Jaguars (-5) at Colts
Rule of thumb, never lay -5 or 5-1/2 with home favorites in the NFL. Is it or isn't it even worse to consider on the road? I don't care and will gladly buck the trend with a Jaguars team that will be looking to make a statement in the season opener against a division rival. Indy is sending rookie Anthony Richardson into the fire, and I'm fading the Colts as much as I'm siding with the Jags.
Saints (-3) vs. Titans
I'm a believer in New Orleans this season, as I see Carr making a difference in not only his career in his 10th campaign, but also on this entire Saints team. I covered him his last three years with the Raiders, and the way he rallied the troops in 2021 was admirable during a tenuous season that could've unraveled easily. He'll have his troops ready for the home and season opener.
Raiders at Broncos Over (44)
Las Vegas coach Josh McDaniels brought in Jimmy Garoppolo, providing a comfort zone for both of them. Garoppolo has credited McDaniels with teaching him how to be an NFL quarterback, and now he's aligned with Davante Adams. In Denver, Sean Payton has been saddled with reviving not only the Broncos but also Russell Wilson after last year's debacle. I don't for one minute think Wilson's career is over just yet. Two offensive-minded coaches in a division rivalry showdown to start the season? I think we're in store for an exciting shootout.
WEEK 1 RECORD: 0-0
SEASON RECORD: 0-0
