WNBA BETTING: Market corrections have Favorites and Over cashing tickets
New York Liberty center Jonquel Jones (l.) battles Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier in a WNBA game on May 25, 2024. The Lynx beat the Liberty 84-67. The two will meet in Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup championship. The at Minnesota earlier this season, on May 25, 2024.
Brandon Todd/New York Liberty
By W.G. RAMIREZ
LAS VEGAS — Buyer beware: after underdogs dominated the WNBA in the betting market the first two weeks of the season, the favorites have been the play in June.
From opening night on May 14 through May 31, underdogs were 26-16, per Covers.com.
Underdogs covered three of the four games on opening night and 17 of the first 23 games of the season before the favorites closed out May with a slim 10-9 edge.
After the Indiana Fever beat the Chicago Sky as a 1-point underdog on June 1, the favorites went on an 11-0 run over the next four gamedays.
For the month, the favorites are 32-22, having covered 10 of the last 14 games played after going 3-1 on Sunday's slate.
"It's cause the favorites were priced too high with unknown intangibles, like all the injuries," said Jeff Sherman, vice president for risk management at SuperBook. "Initially, the numbers come out and we see the market correct itself from early season results.
“There were a lot of injuries, so adjustments were made, which probably gave us parity in the spread. You're going to see the market continue to make corrections from early in the season as we head into the All-Star and Olympic Break.”
As for the totals, the over held the edge in each month, going 22-20 in May and sitting at 29-25 in June.
The over has cashed in 11 of the last 17 games heading into Tuesday night's Commissioner's Cup championship game between the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx.
In ATS standings order, here are betting tidbits for all 12 teams in the WNBA:
Minnesota (13-3 SU, 12-4 ATS) - After covering 10 of its first 12 games this season, the Lynx have split their last four at the window, including covers in their last two. Six of Minnesota's last eight have stayed under thanks to the league's second-lowest scoring defense, allowing just 73.8 points per game.
Seattle (10-6 both SU and ATS) - The Storm were riding high after winning six in a row and making bettors money with a 7-1 ATS run. Since then, the Storm have split their last six at the window after Sunday's win and cover against Connecticut. Keep on eye on this team's totals, as Storm games average 156.6 in Seattle and 163.5 away from it.
Phoenix (8-8 SU, 10-6 ATS) - The Mercury have covered five of six while three of its last five have gone over the posted number, which is saying something since five of its previous six stayed under. Small intangibles could be hurting the Mercury, who rank ninth in each of the following critical areas: points off turnovers (14.4), second-chance points (10.2) and points in the paint (31.5). They also sit 11th with 8.1 fast-break points.
Washington (4-13 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) - The Mystics swept the weekend with back-to-back wins over the Dallas Wings, and have now covered six of their last seven while going over in four straight and six of seven. The Mystics defense has dramatically improved, from allowing 83.6 points per game (9th in WNBA) through their first 12 games, to 78.0 ppg (3rd best) over their last five contests.
Indiana (7-11 SU, 10-8 ATS) - The Fever, who have the league's worst scoring defense in allowing 87.9 points per outing head into the week on win streaks of 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS, while they've gone over in eight straight and 11 of 12 as they're also scoring 80.9 ppg.
Los Angeles (4-13 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) - Despite the absence of Cameron Brink, the Sparks went into New York and covered back-to-back games, catching 14.5 each time, and have now cashed three straight and six of eight. Seven of their last 11 have stayed low.
Connecticut (13-3 SU, 7-9 ATS) - The Sun brought a four-game win streak to the West Coast and then lost outright in Las Vegas and Seattle on Friday and Sunday, respectively. The Sun have now lost three straight at the window, while they've stayed under in four in a row. With the top-ranked scoring defense that has allowed 71.7 points per game, additional low-scoring games could be in their future.
New York (15-3 SU, 7-11 ATS) - The Liberty have opened the season with a franchise-best 15-3 mark, but have been one of the worst at the betting window. They did snap a three-game ATS slide with Sunday's 21-point in Atlanta, but they've still failed to cover 10 of their last 16. They've gone over in four straight and six of seven behind the league's No. 1 scoring offense that is pouring in 88.1 points per game.
Chicago (6-9 both SU and ATS) - The Sky snapped a four-game slide, both SU and ATS, by winning and covering their last two with Thursday's 83-72 victory over Dallas and Sunday's 88-87 win over Indiana. Five of the Sky's last six have gone over. Behind rookie Angel Reese, one of just four players who are averaging a double-double with 13.2 points and 11.1 rebounds per game, the Sky rank No. 1 in the league with 11.3 offensive boards per contest.
Dallas (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS - The Wings are a mess, having lost 11 straight on the hardwood and nine of 10 at the window. A porous defense has helped their games soar past the number in nine of their last 13. Contributing to the Wings allowing a league second-highest 87.1 points per game, they're giving up a league-high 40.1 points in the paint. This could be trouble with two games in Seattle coming up Saturday and Monday.
Las Vegas (8-6 SU, 5-9 ATS) - The Aces had been an ATS disaster, failing to cover nine of their first 12 games, but have now won and covered two straight since Chelsea Gray's return to the court. The Aces have gone over in four of six and eight of their last 13. Not surprising Las Vegas has been involved in high-scoring games, with the league's No. 2 scoring offense (87.2 ppg.) and fifth-worst scoring defense (84.6 ppg.).
Atlanta (6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS) - The Dream have struggled to find consistency with a plethora of talent, and now have to deal with the absence of injured Rhyne Howard. Atlanta has lost five of six both SU and ATS with the worst-scoring offense (75.9 ppg.) in the league. The Dream have stayed under in seven of 11, but have gone high in two straight.
